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Tropical Weather in the Gulf, True or Hogwash?

Writer's picture: MS Weather NetworkMS Weather Network

GFS Model Image posted by "Tropical Strom Center" via Facebook

It has came to my attention that multiple of my friends across many social media platforms have been sharing a picture today from a very fishy source that has had a past of misinforming people. We like to call these people fear-monger's as they instill fear into the general public with false or likely to not happen weather information. Today's post was an image from a single model off the coast of Alabama/Mississippi that depicted "within 10 days we will have a stronger tropical storm impact us" which is more than likely very far from reality. First of all the "valid" time for the model was June 07, 2019 which is MORE than 10 days away at this point, secondly there is only one model that is depicting this action and that is the Global Forecasting System (GFS) model which is not very known to be keen on tropical weather. The reason someone does this is because weather makes news and can even make money for that person if they are building up a page to just turn around and sell it to some scammer or something elsewhere. These people do not care about the false or inaccurate information that may be distributed to the public, its all about the likes and share to them. It may seem harmless but it makes it harder for the public to believe weather professionals or those with more experience that does not just review one model and tell everyone to take cover now for something that is beyond the realm of accurate forecasting. I keep wanting to go back to this past week on Monday when everyone was looking at northern Texas and Oklahoma for multiple large, long-track tornadoes but thankfully that was not the case. On Monday the model guidance about guaranteed it but again I can not stress it enough that things change from even the best and well respected models, it's just the case of the beast mother-nature. So in conclusion I ask that you review the sources you are getting your weather information from very carefully and also think twice about sharing something from a source that sounds fishy as you are giving out false or far fetched information to your friends and family via social media.

-Hunter



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